Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9724c23f741bcc4e894970e7c705b35a7c294c8b4e73b271b8420a82303e6003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 7c | 244.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 209.13$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 188.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 8c | 169.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 20c | 129.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 98.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 91.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 14c | 90.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 88.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 11c | 88.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 45c | 78.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 68c | 74.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 71.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 22c | 55.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 51.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 26.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 42c | 26.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 50c | 25.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 24.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…c357backed No | 70c | 23.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 61c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 79c | 13.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.