Premier League · resolved market
Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc4acedda264a0bf39928ef36fa4a7e70e2186a51d2b1122c86c218e6d60d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 793.8$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.08 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 75c | 349.78$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.34 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 22c | 240$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 75c | 180$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 23c | 160.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 22c | 115$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 78c | 89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 22c | 85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 22c | 57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 22c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 22c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 78c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Over | 78c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 78c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 78c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Over | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Over | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Over | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Over | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.