Premier League · resolved market
Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd8da817e15071235d07d0120278b9a6dd6654d025eaebcb097975c4fc85fc6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 658.57$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.74 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 43c | 250$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 18c | 187$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 46c | 149$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…b50ebacked Over | 54c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 46c | 136$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed Under | 46c | 135$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 46c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 46c | 96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 46c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 46c | 63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 46c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Over | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Over | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Over | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Over | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.