Premier League · resolved market
Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x932658437e767e48c93c04eb0d567fd659bc2a04c7d80229a271a05ca3a6a586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 374.2$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 30c | 179$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 27c | 125$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 69c | 121$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 68c | 108$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Over | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Over | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 69c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 69c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 32c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Over | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 30c | 44.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Over | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Under | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Under | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Under | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Under | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Under | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Under | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Under | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.