CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dde7fe87427201056eca087b69d289b2aaf269a1fc2de8e6e325f7cf0ac4bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SemperFi Esportsof SemperFi Esports, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked SemperFi Esports | 11c | 209.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked SemperFi Esports | 37c | 179.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…971ebacked SemperFi Esports | 49c | 63.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Finals PlayoffsSemperFi Esports won
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 WinnerSemperFi Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.