CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Finals Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc3c95e7a713d006324e2aad7bf9fb79dfbcfd14fc3ac0bbb91907bc901daf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SemperFi Esportsof SemperFi Esports, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed SemperFi Esports | 39c | 3,119$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.89 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…3234backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 55c | 1,107$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.74 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked SemperFi Esports | 36c | 1,093$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.17 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 64c | 1,000$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.72 | 298 | 51.3%153 W · 145 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…8264backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 700$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 667.21$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SemperFi Esports | 47c | 646.66$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.07 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked SemperFi Esports | 50c | 510.73$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.49 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed SemperFi Esports | 37c | 494.03$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.04 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 459.76$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.45 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SemperFi Esports | 51c | 455.72$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.75 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…279bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 40c | 411.01$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.31 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | -18.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked SemperFi Esports | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed SemperFi Esports | 40c | 347.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.46 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 60c | 339.94$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.96 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…59bfbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 62c | 249.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…2ae7backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 217.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.74 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…70febacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 366 | 45.6%167 W · 199 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 181.97$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…bc0cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 63c | 175$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 264 | 57.2%151 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…68c9backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 45c | 168.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 54.4%181 W · 152 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 163.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 163$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 56c | 162.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked SemperFi Esports | 50c | 140.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…971ebacked SemperFi Esports | 45c | 140.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed SemperFi Esports | 51c | 134.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 63c | 133.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 587 | 45.5%267 W · 320 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked SemperFi Esports | 52c | 126.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 57c | 114.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 63c | 109.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked SemperFi Esports | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 172 | 46.5%80 W · 92 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 54c | 81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed SemperFi Esports | 44c | 75.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 73.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 37c | 69.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…c0b2backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 59c | 69.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 207 | 50.7%105 W · 102 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked SemperFi Esports | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…9646backed SemperFi Esports | 40c | 66.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 220 | 59.1%130 W · 90 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked SemperFi Esports | 62c | 64.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…1c37backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 79c | 63.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…9dfebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 41c | 58.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…117ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked SemperFi Esports | 40c | 56.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed SemperFi Esports | 75c | 52.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…6461backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 50.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…7db5backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…6100backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 63c | 49.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed SemperFi Esports | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed SemperFi Esports | 61c | 42.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 231 | 50.6%117 W · 114 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…db4bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 47c | 42.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…c9d4backed SemperFi Esports | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 40.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 446 | 54.9%245 W · 201 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…1373backed SemperFi Esports | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…0ecdbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 329 | 56.8%187 W · 142 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…baf2backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 58c | 34.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 54c | 34.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 57c | 31.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7d…26c4backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 65c | 29.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…6d83backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3785…f577backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcd…5ef7backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 63c | 26.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 301 | 53.8%162 W · 139 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…a07ebacked SemperFi Esports | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 60c | 17.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 61c | 16.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Finals Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 WinnerSemperFi Esports won
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 WinnerSemperFi Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.