Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e14f0a849effaf099c5fc95febff1abad26c73d8dc0d7792c2cd0788e3354ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 8c | 284.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 253.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 214.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 193$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 169.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 114.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 89.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 88.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 83.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 62c | 73.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 55c | 73.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 71.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 70c | 69.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 64.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 22c | 63.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 59.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 62c | 55.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 49.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 42c | 46.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 46.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 46.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 46c | 40.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 56c | 35.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 56c | 35.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 55c | 35.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 32.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 31.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 54c | 26.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 24.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 18.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 14.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C or below on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.