Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e29751aac0b4a59a27e18a14b9b901bca1338a1033c2ebc55d53b3553e383b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,781$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 569.27$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 60c | 401.08$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.43 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 315.2$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 297.13$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 290$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 40c | 284.83$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 259$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 186.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 166.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 131.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 120.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 119.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 109.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 93.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 38c | 84.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 84.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 80.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 35c | 71.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 67.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 57.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 61c | 51.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 50.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 48.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 41c | 48.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 45.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 53c | 45.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 42.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 42c | 41.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 46c | 30.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…5f3bbacked Yes | 41c | 29.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 28.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 28.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 27.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ba6dbacked Yes | 43c | 25.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 25.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.