Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e2d1570b0f78dfa92deddebc08030254498ee25c4332a6db127de319f3c68da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 15c | 3,223$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.57 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 46c | 1,599$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.28 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 1,327$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.45 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 989$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.46 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Under | 63c | 745.99$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 14c | 603.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.67 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 13c | 600$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 59c | 494$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Under | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 37c | 267.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 44c | 143.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Under | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 19c | 83.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Over | 64c | 70.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 55c | 65.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 26c | 60.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 55.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 44c | 54.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Under | 21c | 50.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…c864backed Over | 64c | 39.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 49c | 36.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 63c | 18.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.