Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc111bd37aa7bc4a7aa095e95cf0cde4508f2b43ac1f5cc067d80c115d6d4b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,236$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.67 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 8c | 1,171$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 28c | 595.86$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.41 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 27c | 399.68$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.77 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Under | 72c | 289.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee2…8a14backed Under | 74c | 280.67$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…3ff1backed Over | 28c | 160$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 127.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 32c | 111$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 73c | 68.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 26c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 38c | 52.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Under | 34c | 50.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 42c | 46.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 73c | 42.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 26c | 41.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…29d8backed Under | 44c | 27.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 74c | 26.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 52c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.