Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc59e6f7fb01f0f5cbd2eb76a576687318116560d59f58b12aab9b7c40258448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 13,000$6,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,530 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 10,304$4,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,444.71 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 51c | 4,847$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 3,347$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.57 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 43c | 789.5$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.71 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 50c | 340.85$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.88 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 50c | 243.68$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 50c | 185$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 49c | 158.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 52c | 145.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Over | 50c | 125.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 48c | 122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 50c | 67.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…f5d1backed Over | 51c | 55.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…e3e7backed Under | 48c | 55.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96aa…2505backed Under | 51c | 54.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1207…2855backed Over | 53c | 48.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…cad6backed Over | 52c | 47.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Under | 56c | 42.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…6026backed Under | 49c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…efeebacked Under | 49c | 36.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…5486backed Under | 50c | 35.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…5792backed Over | 54c | 29.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340a…bb82backed Over | 54c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6275…e947backed Over | 53c | 27.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2c…bf65backed Over | 54c | 25.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Over | 66c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd77…d379backed Under | 50c | 21.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 66c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 76c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.