Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e378c63553894bcef76fcec43468bcb44381ebd38714f4d422fc812d9861364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 1,402$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 785.29$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 589.41$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 18c | 441$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 280.34$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 259.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 252.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 25c | 235.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 22c | 224.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 14c | 211.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 20c | 210$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 207.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 202.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 176.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 20c | 170.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 11c | 156.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 14c | 144.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 7c | 140.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 134.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 130.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 124.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 12c | 105.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 90.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…f24cbacked Yes | 23c | 89.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 14c | 86.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 21c | 77.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 22c | 73.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 17c | 70.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 54.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 75c | 53.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 79c | 50.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 43.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 43.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 79c | 41.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…1551backed No | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 17.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 15.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.