TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,227 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes30c3,695$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.099518.9%18 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes24c803.06$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.642,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed No79c462.92$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6512941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes28c435.37$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8290040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No72c421.66$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.571,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No74c419$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9481558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c408$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.314,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c325.84$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.264,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes26c299.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5337…b0c7backed Yes35c267.59$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.25617.9%10 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+193.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c255.75$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.262,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No66c244.67$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No74c231.28$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.985,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No71c222.75$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.034,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No77c214.34$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.311,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c205$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.429,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No72c198$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.631,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No68c178.94$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.494,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No77c136.48$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No72c121.07$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.082,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No76c119.04$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3425784.4%217 W · 40 L+30.3wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c105.1$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.755,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa66…1c5bbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3637150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4241…d03cbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-72.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa282…8700backed Yes34c99.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.991030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec3…d814backed Yes35c99.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.852748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No67c95$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.751,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c85.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.129,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.63,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No66c78.2$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.26,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes27c74.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2066926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23b…b787backed Yes22c73.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.467350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No64c71$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4542762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.720838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No74c68.75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.932,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed Yes32c64.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4411950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes33c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.143441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd8e…fb01backed No76c52.71$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.713871.1%27 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No66c52.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8227169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e61…f87bbacked No78c51.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.272369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes23c50.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5627841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.516220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No66c47.43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1630834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No70c45.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.382,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes27c44.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.921,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8c…f1f5backed Yes23c44.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No67c40.47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3617859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1289951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e92…cb85backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.181457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No67c38.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.772,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes38c38.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6363538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43be…d8bebacked No78c37.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.34077.5%31 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No68c36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.521,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No70c34.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5140862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed No73c34.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.377058.6%41 W · 29 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96d5…7227backed Yes30c33.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.192441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.164,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No69c30.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.512,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No67c30.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.992,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf46e…4421backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No74c29.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.792,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes42c29.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.399756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No70c28.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.632,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No68c28.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No76c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.722,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0de…3b38backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6712473.4%91 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No72c26.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.461,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x414a…253ebacked No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.751794.1%16 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick74cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed No74c23.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.233551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No74c23.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1546857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No57c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.552,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No75c21.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2120056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a7…7fd5backed No74c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.466473.4%47 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No65c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.351553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No73c20.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.423,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa1…2f62backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56870.6%48 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710665.1%69 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0a…65abbacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.633876.6%259 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick78cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No70c17.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.122,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No72c16.66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6791861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No69c14.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6131748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No68c14.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7133550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.