Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7006795b6e514c73ff43ff60ef2a19cff95a577e95beda17cd301995695383d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 616.1$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 48c | 546.52$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.52 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 522.41$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.3 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 490.15$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 54c | 418.08$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.33 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 393.22$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.42 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 45c | 391$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.7 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 7c | 340.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 52c | 333.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.28 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 292$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 274.96$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 267.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 48c | 229.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 53c | 225.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 65c | 197.55$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 53c | 185.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 183.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 180.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 178.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed No | 12c | 172.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 13c | 169.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 47c | 163.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 76c | 159.91$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 153.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 152.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 140.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 124.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 45c | 108.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 105.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 85.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 47c | 85.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 46c | 73.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 73.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 70.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 70.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 69.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 62.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 45c | 60.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 53c | 58.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 46c | 55.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 52.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5abdbacked Yes | 50c | 48.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 45c | 47.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 42.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 42c | 40.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 39.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 46c | 39.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 39.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 56c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 54c | 37.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 36.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 55c | 34.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 34.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 56c | 32.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 32.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 42c | 30.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 43c | 29.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 29.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 54c | 27.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 26.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 26.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 55c | 26.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 47c | 25.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 49c | 25.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 55c | 22.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 19.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.