World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e873fe93cfebd67ad14815f9526b775c3181e041c33bdc846877f742b8b9d7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 70c | 290.89$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 65c | 283.34$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 230.4$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.21 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 224.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.49 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 214.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 201.21$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 35c | 183.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 172.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 145.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 102.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 101.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 94.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 82.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 78.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 66.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 53c | 61.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 68c | 60.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 64c | 56.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 67c | 55.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 55.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 53.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 56c | 50.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 49.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 48.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 47.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 47.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 64c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 45.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 41.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 35c | 41.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 41c | 38.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 35c | 29.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 72c | 28.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 67c | 26.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 26.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 52c | 25.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 24.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 76c | 21.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 65c | 15.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.