Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e88a23ce630a49c4c15865b499aa77176fd83d8b69a0ae65ca75553d1812079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 52c | 8,407$4,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,039.34 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 53c | 4,361$2,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.63 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 48c | 2,429$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.36 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Yes | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 48c | 1,738$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.41 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 47c | 1,544$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 55c | 1,289$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.12 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 64c | 925.99$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.13 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 47c | 822.78$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.71 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33c…2bd1backed Yes | 36c | 560$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 51c | 499.82$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 48c | 487.63$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.41 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 35c | 350$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 43c | 278.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 45c | 266.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 49c | 242.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 34c | 237.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 53c | 205$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Yes | 53c | 187.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 29c | 169.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 49c | 159.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked No | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Yes | 47c | 147.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 36c | 142.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 51c | 139.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 27c | 120.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…47eabacked Yes | 48c | 112.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 37c | 108.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 49c | 106.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 47c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 25c | 100.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…9c6cbacked Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 61c | 81.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 33c | 72.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…ac49backed Yes | 23c | 65.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 48c | 64.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e301backed Yes | 50c | 58.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 47c | 53.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…0cb5backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +158.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 44c | 39.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Yes | 48c | 39.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…a64dbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 47c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 49c | 24.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…b5a9backed Yes | 54c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-25?this page
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-01-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.