Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-01-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfab3f458faa3b8f4104bdfc8a0a5b4e6b771437384a1528d06aa9d5c4f0b8073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 3,507$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 32c | 1,120$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.38 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 1,031$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.59 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 42c | 938$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.96 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 69c | 891$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.21 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 451.08$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 38c | 308.14$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 12c | 234.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 63c | 228.53$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 29c | 168.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 168.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 28c | 165.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 67c | 160.47$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 41c | 121.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed No | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Yes | 21c | 118.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…1befbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…4340backed No | 73c | 53.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…9c6cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 27c | 39.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 76c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 28.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed No | 61c | 23.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 73c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked No | 79c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-01-25?this page
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.