Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4145286547087deafa2a343de59aa4ed32296f368cb2b975470976659b21baae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 1,447$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 52c | 830.77$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 681$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.94 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 63c | 612.2$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.26 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 62c | 422.83$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.79 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 415.52$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.52 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 41c | 357$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.18 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 57c | 342.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 43c | 342$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.94 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 74c | 317.57$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 62c | 268.49$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 27c | 260$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked No | 74c | 248.65$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 141.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 97.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 71c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 60c | 56.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 37c | 49.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f72…dd3fbacked Yes | 50c | 38.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 36c | 33.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed No | 57c | 18.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?this page
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-25?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-01-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.