Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e896650d5c2cc830de3b2da8a1ec5a7b9e27957ba7f74c8c884d98d0a77ff81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cagliari Calcioof AS Roma, Cagliari Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cagliari Calcio | 72c | 4,399$3,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.92 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked AS Roma | 32c | 1,585$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked AS Roma | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked AS Roma | 32c | 624.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed AS Roma | 33c | 603.03$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed AS Roma | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked AS Roma | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cagliari Calcio | 69c | 348.39$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Cagliari Calcio | 74c | 295.34$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Cagliari Calcio | 77c | 276.33$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed AS Roma | 31c | 161.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…1093backed Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed AS Roma | 29c | 135.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed AS Roma | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Cagliari Calcio | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed AS Roma | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Cagliari Calcio | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AS Roma | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…231cbacked AS Roma | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a9…9f18backed AS Roma | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…9f85backed Cagliari Calcio | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…f7b4backed Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Cagliari Calcio | 74c | 14.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.