Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda5e941ce5d3d9422001b0f15f2504a8489d986654bfff2892d797908c7e573
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 41c | 1,499$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.59 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,060$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.75 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed Under | 64c | 986.14$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 57c | 566.38$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.54 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…8f46backed Over | 24c | 308.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Over | 43c | 300.93$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 295.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 43c | 257.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 58c | 213.79$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…6129backed Over | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 187.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 76c | 103.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 156 | 23.7%37 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 59c | 94.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Over | 16c | 78.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 57c | 34.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…7b19backed Under | 71c | 34.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 27.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.