Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0688f8b68d16b220e6edabc1bda6c20833aea8c0b5a92c797c6474c719045a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 3,069$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.44 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 35c | 2,817$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 1,199$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.62 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Over | 36c | 469.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 44c | 390$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 75c | 212.75$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 67c | 175.71$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…75e0backed Over | 69c | 140.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 69c | 130.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 60c | 123.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 23.7%37 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Over | 11c | 99.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 70.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 51.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Over | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 69c | 29.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce4…8f30backed Over | 71c | 28.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 68c | 16.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.