MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ead59af1bbb89cedffda4207aab86797f524e80456ed91db2ab664c714d2fa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 1,067$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.12 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 1,043$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.74 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 906$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 866.95$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 807.27$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 72c | 195.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals | 23c | 167.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 105.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Kansas City Royals | 24c | 103.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 69.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Detroit Tigers | 76c | 65.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 61.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Detroit Tigers | 77c | 45.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 43.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 40.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…4147backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 39.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e5…0cadbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.