MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b65e2227e17b4d26d881223920d8a5f2d67cc741ad34ff331324836096662fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f21…0ec5backed Under | 50c | 20,526$10,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,263.13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 14,688$7,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,239.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…4388backed Over | 50c | 10,310$5,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,155 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 7,757$3,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,878.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…58b4backed Under | 45c | 5,249$2,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 49c | 2,587$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.58 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 2,255$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 1,974$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.82 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 1,007$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 51c | 981$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.31 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 50c | 770.07$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.04 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 55c | 766.89$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.79 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 690.94$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 504.16$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 468.84$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.11 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 24c | 464.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 34c | 432$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 51c | 393.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.48 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 76c | 254.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 49c | 237$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 50c | 159.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Over | 49c | 151.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 77c | 127.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…cb50backed Under | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 52c | 76.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 50c | 70.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 67.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Under | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 32c | 47.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 61c | 46.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 40.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 39.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 51c | 35.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 25.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 47c | 24.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.