MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44d5d53bdc7b191a5a73669ce0db051b7bdd530b20f94499160cf0e1a8d1b550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x758e…f824backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 1,916$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 590.51$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 22c | 557.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 499.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.28 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 363.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.89 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 344.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 338.36$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 314.41$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kansas City Royals | 65c | 228.56$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.56 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 125.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 51c | 113.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 108.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 91.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 78.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 58.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 43.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 39.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 33.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 30.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 25.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 21.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 20.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.