MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ebe2fec17b5baf41279d5849a3e78b0578e9b3a140ed6e3b8226f4b62d15040
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 5,067$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.24 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 4,297$2,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.92 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 3,416$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.43 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 2,393$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.45 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 2,105$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.33 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 750$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 700.31$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.91 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652a…fd23backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 700$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 600.14$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 592.11$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 592.11$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…fa32backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 401.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.39 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 394.12$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 287.84$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…80febacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 110.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 90.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 35.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 30.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.