Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ebea5006b7548b13953ad1551122788bfbe447b56a4f66cd60faacc5923370e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,014$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 774.13$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.86 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 51c | 673.43$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.94 | 681 | 50.5%344 W · 337 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 355.27$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.16 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 346.28$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 52c | 328.88$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.32 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 57c | 313.76$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.47 | 631 | 60.2%380 W · 251 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 55c | 300.17$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 46c | 255.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed No | 46c | 243$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 46c | 235.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.61 | 899 | 29%261 W · 638 L | -22.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 199.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 62c | 187.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 45c | 185$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 181.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 170.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 49c | 166.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 145.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 142.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 1,114 | 35.1%391 W · 723 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 135.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 40c | 134.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 64c | 131.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 192 | 47.9%92 W · 100 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 119$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 112.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 53c | 102.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 97.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed Yes | 43c | 95.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 94.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 91.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 88.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…4a71backed Yes | 58c | 86.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 42c | 85.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 84.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 63c | 82.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 78.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 74.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 47c | 72.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 48c | 70.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 69.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 68.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 67.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 65.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 761 | 26.9%205 W · 556 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 52c | 63.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 37c | 63.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 55c | 62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 38c | 56.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 55c | 54.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 53.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 62c | 52.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 41c | 52.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 48c | 46.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 44c | 45.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 63c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 42c | 42.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 50c | 41.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 37c | 41.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 46c | 40.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 569 | 43.4%247 W · 322 L | -32.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,182 | 38.2%452 W · 730 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 48c | 39.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 38.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 41c | 37.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 37.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 43c | 34.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 57c | 34.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 63c | 32.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 52c | 32.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 32.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 35c | 30.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 40c | 30.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 431 | 43.9%189 W · 242 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 46c | 29.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 56c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 27.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 50c | 25.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 45c | 25.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 939 | 2.4%23 W · 916 L | -386.8wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 53c | 24.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 53c | 24.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 62c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.