Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab73161e2dfa73ceaab3125fa6ad11f3e46be75d43197009a75f3a9464637d6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 32c | 467.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.21 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 74c | 460.4$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.04 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 56c | 444.44$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.57 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 411.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 390.89$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 350.66$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 38c | 216.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.84 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 150.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 34c | 149.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 36c | 139.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 139.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 48c | 137.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 130.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 43c | 121.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 114.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 112.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 44c | 112.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 106.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 104.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 102.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 44c | 96.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 95.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 89.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 83.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 81.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…5bf0backed Yes | 28c | 73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 67.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 64.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 61.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 40c | 60.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 59.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 64c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 73c | 56.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 56.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…43b9backed Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 55.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 66c | 51.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4926…60d5backed No | 72c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 30c | 48.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 47.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 31c | 46.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 31c | 46.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 44.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 43.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 43.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…4459backed Yes | 27c | 42.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +117%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…fce0backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…b32abacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 38.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 37.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 76c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 33.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 33.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 37c | 30.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 35c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 71c | 28.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 74c | 26.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 76c | 23.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 66c | 22.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…cacabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 76c | 19.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 18.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 68c | 15.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 69c | 15.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.