Us Politics · resolved market
Trump x Epstein files made public in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ef9f4b05e6d9be040d3e844d00b854360db75409fa6d4f4f92f7d510c1ec7ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2893…1534backed Yes | 7c | 15,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 6c | 8,242$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 3c | 8,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…2124backed Yes | 6c | 5,242$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,872$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,995$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 3,027$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 4c | 2,918$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 2,720$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Yes | 5c | 2,645$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de8…4069backed Yes | 8c | 2,550$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,251$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 2c | 2,061$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f200backed Yes | 6c | 1,996$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 1,849$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,243$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…61fbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,152$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…99eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efc…7a01backed Yes | 6c | 983.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8775backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 50c | 701$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…ebefbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…e09bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd7…01eebacked Yes | 7c | 471.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 3c | 414.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 49c | 201$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.51 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…c65cbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c6…0997backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.