Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6efa63178b4aa6cf9aa63b24a677ae8dd7c141c4a52bb52b297ec46776cb65f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 357.65$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 294.38$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 278.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 54c | 214.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.83 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 183.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 51c | 159.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 153.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 128.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 60c | 124.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 114.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 109.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 107.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 48c | 107$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 39c | 106.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 103.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…2404backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 44c | 66.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…55d7backed Yes | 49c | 61.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 56.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 61c | 55.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 21c | 55.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 52.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 49.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…1e1dbacked No | 52c | 47.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…0854backed No | 52c | 45.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 45.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 45.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 44c | 43.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 39c | 42.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 46c | 41.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 39.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 57c | 37.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 56c | 37.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 43c | 36.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 34.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 39c | 33.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 41c | 31.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…8b3bbacked Yes | 54c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 30.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed Yes | 46c | 28.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 26.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 43c | 23.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 49c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 20.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 20.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 62c | 16.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…1d5bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 38°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.