Lol · resolved market
First Blood in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f032ca924fced7050b7f9a3999e72818b67a94145b36c05d4e3801774fcb634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Anyone's Legendof JD Gaming, Anyone's Legend
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Anyone's Legend | 49c | 205.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…ed3bbacked JD Gaming | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 44.6%100 W · 124 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked JD Gaming | 52c | 192.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 923 | 54.3%501 W · 422 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Anyone's Legend | 48c | 191.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Anyone's Legend | 54c | 176.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 1,096 | 38.9%426 W · 670 L | -47.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked JD Gaming | 46c | 176.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed JD Gaming | 45c | 161.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed JD Gaming | 47c | 135.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Anyone's Legend | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 493 | 46.5%229 W · 264 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…fdf9backed Anyone's Legend | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 526 | 50.8%267 W · 259 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…643abacked JD Gaming | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked JD Gaming | 43c | 23.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- First Blood in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 2?Anyone's Legend won
- Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)JD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5)Anyone's Legend won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group AscendAnyone's Legend won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 WinnerJD Gaming won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 WinnerAnyone's Legend won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.