Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0e8957f17717ee81dc6b03f7bccb81896202049bc7749b60bf64ef041b6cb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 16c | 8,227$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,898.65 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 44c | 4,827$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,682.88 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 3,876$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.53 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 35c | 1,132$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…681cbacked Yes | 34c | 196.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Yes | 24c | 136.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 128.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed Yes | 20c | 126.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 99.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 26c | 93.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…686cbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fb…064ebacked Yes | 32c | 63.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 43c | 26.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed Yes | 70c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?this page
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2025-11-06?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.