Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f13b98db9ad63f707f7a331d46f9f5ebc440f5f3f3ded596a6491591eb3fbcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebda…75a9backed No | 3c | 427.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 211.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 30c | 189.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 34c | 149.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 56c | 132.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 126.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 125.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 116.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 26c | 103.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 14c | 83.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 78.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 22c | 73.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 48c | 72.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 63.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 28c | 51.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 50.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 50.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 61c | 48.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 48c | 48.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 63c | 45.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 41.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 40.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 44c | 39.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…c9a9backed Yes | 76c | 39.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 36.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 35c | 36.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 31c | 36.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…2199backed Yes | 35c | 35.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 55c | 34.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 34.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…7058backed Yes | 48c | 32.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 31.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 29.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 29.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 29.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…d266backed Yes | 49c | 28.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 39c | 27.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…2b5bbacked Yes | 54c | 27.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 56c | 26.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 73c | 25.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 46c | 21.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 78c | 20.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.