Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Riku Takahata vs Saki Tange
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1b01a5f28802c70b041ac2fd4ecd4c359f2b60ed5fd169ff53b8ad55d5d838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Riku Takahataof Riku Takahata, Saki Tange
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Riku Takahata | 77c | 3,473$2,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.71 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Saki Tange | 20c | 1,363$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.44 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Saki Tange | 25c | 828.24$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Saki Tange | 30c | 769.18$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.19 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Riku Takahata | 57c | 628.87$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.98 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Saki Tange | 28c | 624.48$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.03 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Saki Tange | 73c | 558.61$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.05 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Riku Takahata | 66c | 520$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.8 | 197 | 40.6%80 W · 117 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Riku Takahata | 69c | 285.18$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…ca10backed Saki Tange | 44c | 277.2$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Saki Tange | 22c | 227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Saki Tange | 24c | 219.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 910 | 51%464 W · 446 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Saki Tange | 54c | 149$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Riku Takahata | 47c | 136.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Saki Tange | 11c | 119.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…716abacked Saki Tange | 32c | 114.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Saki Tange | 39c | 82.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Riku Takahata | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e3…8c11backed Riku Takahata | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…20e4backed Saki Tange | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Saki Tange | 64c | 18.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.