Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1f60015732b4418c34ad4cf1353f94ee29f1a93a3b9d2aa4108a28c8177354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 15c | 644.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.43 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 2c | 590$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.38 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 7c | 397.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 354.42$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 6c | 187.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.38 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 51c | 166.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 29c | 165.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.35 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 156.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.64 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 72c | 142.83$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 16c | 137.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 137.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 17c | 122.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 102.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 86.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 73c | 78.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 38c | 78.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 23c | 75.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 50c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 71c | 69.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 67c | 63.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 22c | 49.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 48.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 70c | 43.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 72c | 43.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 35c | 40.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 74c | 37.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 36c | 31.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 79c | 26.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 77c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 15.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.