Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b465497fad5097b71b5b2c49b63c24694e6e2f57c85c42472d23719a1842fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 209.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 205.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 16c | 164.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 133.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 44c | 91.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 90.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 21c | 82.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 45c | 80.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 20c | 75.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 71c | 66.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 46c | 64.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 63.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 59c | 62.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 65c | 51.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 24c | 50.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 43.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 51c | 42.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 41.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 27c | 38.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 67c | 34.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 31.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 31.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 59c | 30.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 79c | 30.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 29.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 66c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 63c | 29.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 77c | 26.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 53c | 19.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.