Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6586951423a81c2ed3060da9bb3b447d10f61851ef8b63414b8d505fa6f10f76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 2c | 664.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 294.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 8c | 289.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 239.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 232.62$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 11c | 225.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 6c | 204.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 194$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 13c | 189.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 29c | 174.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 154.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 59c | 84.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 45c | 82.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 45c | 82.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 51c | 65.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked No | 61c | 48.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 52c | 44.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 58c | 42.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 57c | 39.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 35.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 32.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 77c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…7883backed No | 80c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed No | 53c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 65c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 63c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 62c | 18.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.