Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f30fedf409220e04e765affff58ed0730df83363827eb20a77c98069b2f2351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a99…e614backed No | 24c | 415.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 23c | 297.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 75c | 220$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 158.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 78c | 154.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 152.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 142.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 134.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 80c | 124.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 118.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 117.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 102.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 102.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 75c | 101.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 77c | 100.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 72c | 99.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 83.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 81.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 76c | 78.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 76.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 61.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 74c | 58.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 72c | 57.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 53.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 37c | 52.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 50.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 32.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 37c | 31.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 30.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…bfb6backed Yes | 77c | 27.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 75c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 71c | 22.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 75c | 18.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 78c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 17.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 17.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 77c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 72c | 16.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 15.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…bdb4backed Yes | 75c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…c46ebacked Yes | 76c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.