Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f3cb3c97d41a738d689cb65e149ea93c893c5cc7be501d9ca989e4bbb1e7dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 204.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 7c | 188.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 179.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 165.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 163.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 103.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 97.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 56c | 88.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 66c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 53c | 66.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 62.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 34c | 61.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 30c | 57.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 51.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 49.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 35c | 45.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…1d8fbacked Yes | 45c | 41.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 42c | 40.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 39.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b08…2086backed No | 73c | 36.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 35c | 35.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 35.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 60c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 42c | 28.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 24.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 96°F or higher on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.