Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c86f1320453731f27e3bcb5f80ea08fa5fc39d46626830fa3f5187d18086a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 835.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 599.35$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 503.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 340.67$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 316.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 31c | 238.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 196$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 168$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 149.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 145.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 66c | 144.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 139.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 64c | 113.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 33c | 112.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 60c | 109.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 28c | 109.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 35c | 101.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 25c | 89.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 60c | 83.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 77.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 64c | 76.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 69.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 61.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 36c | 53.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 53.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed No | 75c | 53.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 51.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 73c | 50.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 49.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 45.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 69c | 43.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 69c | 43.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 42.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 35c | 38.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 33c | 35.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 31.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 29.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 34c | 29.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 26.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 25.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 24.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 22.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 63c | 21.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 64c | 20.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 64c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 62c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 66c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 96°F or higher on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.