Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f6b02f8e72c0d1cee99b0da697593bc066335540d8bf6fe4cc4736a436d07bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 790.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 337.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…6090backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 179.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 16c | 147.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 17c | 146.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 139.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 134.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 126$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 95.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 17c | 95.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 20c | 91.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 91.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 76c | 83.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 23c | 75.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 73.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Yes | 14c | 71.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…58babacked Yes | 22c | 65.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a34…af17backed Yes | 23c | 65.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 78c | 63.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 54.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 79c | 53.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…0752backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 21c | 48.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2093…758cbacked Yes | 31c | 45.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 74c | 39.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 29.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 25.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 77c | 25.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…bb18backed No | 69c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 79c | 17.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 74c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.