Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9b354a63022338e07454258e8a2130039ce09ed2fdec40b37d46b3b6a955db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 1c | 1,428$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 16c | 590.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 346.8$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…4447backed No | 7c | 290.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 45c | 211.65$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.19 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 7c | 211.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 61c | 201.48$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.32 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 22c | 187.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 175.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 63c | 170.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 163.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 158.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 152.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 148.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 123.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 122.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 19c | 115.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 109.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 44c | 108.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 107.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 55c | 95.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 11c | 94.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 40c | 94.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 67c | 89.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 87.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 41c | 83.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 45c | 69.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 55c | 64.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 62.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 46c | 61.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 21c | 59.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 59.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…2d5fbacked Yes | 41c | 54.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f2…ffd2backed No | 62c | 53.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 65c | 48.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 45c | 47.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 54c | 44.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 43.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 48c | 43.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 46c | 42.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 42.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 45c | 41.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 35c | 41.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 70c | 39.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 37.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 43c | 37.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 65c | 35.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 45c | 34.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 32.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 61c | 31.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 30.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 50c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 27.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 43c | 24.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…b6b8backed No | 62c | 20.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 63c | 19.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 61c | 17.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 60c | 16.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 72c | 13.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.