Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f91d5b79b922c3f0b9f5b9367b0917ca2161824fea9b719d8b8fc1b3f5cdea6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,952 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 3c | 846.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 328.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 80c | 314.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 308.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 18c | 200.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 174.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 15c | 140.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 121.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 119.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 16c | 108.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 85.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 20c | 74.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 80c | 74.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 73.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 66.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 21c | 63.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 79c | 56.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 56.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 56.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 22c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 54.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 77c | 51.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 38.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 79c | 30.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 79c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 79c | 23.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…96d0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 78c | 19.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 80c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 77c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 79c | 16.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x663c…0401backed No | 77c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 55°F or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.