TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,744 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10258%2 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c1,808$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.56,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes8c691.87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0967…be0cbacked Yes11c660.96$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe474…9b56backed Yes4c308.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.896950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c296.26$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.34,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c261.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes12c252.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes19c185.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2933726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No65c172.16$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c160.87$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.028,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No66c159.45$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes9c147.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.577,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes20c138.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.751,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes42c135.3$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7446733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes15c133.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No66c132.36$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3658349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes12c124.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5545127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes9c120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.320144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c113.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.993,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x516c…8bb5backed No58c107.08$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c101.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.549,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes31c100.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3181029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes42c98.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1411533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked Yes35c97.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1112068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbed…6221backed No58c89.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.662948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No74c86.33$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes33c84.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No60c83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.213748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c28…73a4backed No62c82.24$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.251681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes32c79.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x387c…8622backed Yes38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes35c76.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.721,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes35c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.17727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c74.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1326426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No59c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.521,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes46c68.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8849941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes30c67.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No72c66.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2326458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c64.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.683,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No73c63.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0232760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df8…4005backed Yes32c61.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8210841.7%45 W · 63 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c61.7$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.821,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes28c61.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1774023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8322…b5fbbacked Yes40c61.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes28c60.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0213523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes27c60.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1153525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No70c57.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2614071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…6a43backed Yes35c56.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205538.2%21 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes33c56.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.786847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No66c54.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6181756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes48c50.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.193036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes29c48.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.226737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes39c45.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.937229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d45…020fbacked Yes29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.021631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c41.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes27c40.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.418842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.616336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c39.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.592,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c39.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.372,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba5…a2d6backed No72c38.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9145…544cbacked Yes29c38.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes33c36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.881926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.9wins-0.26per pick52cpaid-58.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked Yes38c35.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6911449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes33c35.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.566833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5580…8029backed Yes40c34.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No75c34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5631868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a84…e23abacked Yes36c32.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.641822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb000…e8fabacked No59c32.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.231435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes33c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…e7acbacked Yes46c30.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5be9…bf5cbacked No66c30.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.34757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7516532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21e1…4682backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No66c29.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0626169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed No71c26.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6818351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6af…fc2fbacked No58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.863164.5%20 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x890c…dd14backed No65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.081855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b9…b47fbacked No68c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.098048.8%39 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997f…000abacked No73c20.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6614548.3%70 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.967767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.744553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46cd…bb68backed No70c18.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.694235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No73c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.915558.1%90 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa019…7935backed No68c16.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.195375.5%40 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.951,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed No69c14.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.565962.7%37 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No69c14.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.533,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.