Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x742a8ca9d547f62732257e8384bbadec712a37fd6abeb4a1505eff0c91edb284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 758.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 68c | 700.17$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.91 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 9c | 537.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 61c | 468.4$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.14 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 333.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 30c | 300$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.32 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 276.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 30c | 265$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 145.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 144.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 11c | 142.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 10c | 142$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 71c | 135$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked Yes | 24c | 125.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 50c | 112.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 29c | 102.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 97.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 59c | 93.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 87.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 33c | 87.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 23c | 85.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 78c | 84.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 80.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 20c | 72.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 61.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 61.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 56.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 28c | 53.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 38c | 52.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 68c | 51.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e1…4682backed No | 70c | 49.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 23c | 46.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 77c | 42.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 28c | 40.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 40.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 43c | 39.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 38.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…be0cbacked Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 58c | 29.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 40c | 28.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…a368backed No | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b4…27efbacked No | 78c | 27.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da4…6686backed No | 79c | 26.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…7f5abacked No | 66c | 22.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…d87abacked No | 72c | 17.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…6931backed No | 71c | 17.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 17.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 17.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 77c | 17.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 80c | 16.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 76c | 14.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 14.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 55°F or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.