Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fceea78ebe26d3db35e6b958abac2edb3602b60e29baade42b578e734660c74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Team Lynx, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked Team Lynx | 11c | 7,221$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.99 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 5,744$4,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.53 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Team Lynx | 2c | 4,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…a8b6backed Team Lynx | 28c | 3,792$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Team Lynx | 15c | 2,300$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 1,200$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…5a9bbacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 999.97$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 963.54$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Lynx | 18c | 923.97$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.41 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 731$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.54 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Lynx | 32c | 724.47$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.08 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Team Lynx | 25c | 677$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.25 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Lynx | 11c | 606$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Team Lynx | 22c | 495.44$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…1e15backed Team Lynx | 5c | 474.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Lynx | 20c | 430.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Team Lynx | 25c | 406$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Team Lynx | 11c | 371.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 311.47$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Team Lynx | 6c | 269.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Team Lynx | 15c | 216.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Team Lynx | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Lynx | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Lynx | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…acc9backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Lynx | 25c | 162.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…c10abacked Team Lynx | 12c | 148.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b17…2aa5backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 143.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Lynx | 24c | 125.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Lynx | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Team Lynx | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Team Lynx | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 16c | 75.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Team Lynx | 23c | 69.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Team Lynx | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Team Lynx | 17c | 67.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 65.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 45.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Team Lynx | 34c | 29.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.