TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Team Lynx, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,596 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5021…18a6backed Team Lynx0c7,227$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9024…a444backed Team Lynx2c5,075$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.25300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Natus Vincere62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.973447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Lynx23c2,846$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.3630138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Team Lynx17c2,188$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.651513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Lynx28c1,867$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.7373841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Team Lynx27c1,748$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.455962.7%37 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Natus Vincere63c1,596$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.211957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx38c1,531$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.372,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d65…6469backed Team Lynx22c1,439$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Lynx26c1,292$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.3846535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Lynx1c1,265$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.926169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Team Lynx12c1,200$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8349133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Team Lynx25c1,187$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30054445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Natus Vincere76c1,178$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.5123529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Team Lynx19c1,027$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.717647.4%36 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Lynx10c999.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Lynx25c942.73$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.286949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Team Lynx32c925.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014661%89 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Lynx13c912.95$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6239936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Natus Vincere78c892.93$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.4346664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Natus Vincere61c781$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3012944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Team Lynx34c736.43$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Team Lynx21c583.17$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.685829.3%17 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere79c578.49$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7885851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Lynx5c551.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.146132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Natus Vincere78c535.1$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.728253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9501…a052backed Team Lynx38c531.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002564%16 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe352…12fcbacked Team Lynx36c529.99$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1425backed Natus Vincere63c529.55$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.251266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Natus Vincere67c520.12$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.2816155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Team Lynx38c510.77$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7727548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked Team Lynx38c492.11$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18711534.8%40 W · 75 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1a7a…7181backed Team Lynx22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick26cpaid+118.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc64d…c8b7backed Natus Vincere62c444.58$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Natus Vincere63c442.74$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.896237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b97…ceb9backed Natus Vincere67c441.55$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Lynx31c399.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12513238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Team Lynx11c363.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7963…630dbacked Team Lynx38c360.95$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.16650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d1…73d5backed Natus Vincere69c358.8$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9473…ad17backed Team Lynx20c350.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Team Lynx23c344.29$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.74438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Natus Vincere70c336.04$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0412050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed Natus Vincere80c334.99$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.59544.2%42 W · 53 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3228…b4e3backed Team Lynx11c333.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.37037.1%26 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Natus Vincere65c308.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7133644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Team Lynx36c281.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10087645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Team Lynx4c269.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.343286.4%21 W · 307 L-102.4wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0x5a05…4c5abacked Natus Vincere80c268.88$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.789478.7%74 W · 20 L+13.0wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+20.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Team Lynx38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-51.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Natus Vincere80c250.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.251070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Team Lynx17c243.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.943735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Team Lynx16c239.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3879343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca6d…492bbacked Team Lynx41c216.17$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.961241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Team Lynx38c210.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick63cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd365…d5d7backed Team Lynx7c207.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked Team Lynx34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Team Lynx11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe065…d1debacked Team Lynx28c185.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Team Lynx33c184.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Natus Vincere64c159.38$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3841248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Natus Vincere65c153.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4110659.4%63 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08c1…28f7backed Natus Vincere66c151.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a60…a571backed Team Lynx10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b30…a315backed Team Lynx14c144.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebb…1f99backed Team Lynx21c142.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Lynx18c130$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7537832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed Team Lynx11c122$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4213731.4%43 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a1e…6f16backed Team Lynx11c118.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55366%35 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1036…1e15backed Team Lynx22c118.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.93333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Team Lynx12c116.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5122538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Team Lynx22c113.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.589756.7%55 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x802e…6c06backed Team Lynx38c111.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.33560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+55.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6755…d3cfbacked Team Lynx26c111$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked Natus Vincere63c103.17$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1723849.6%118 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Natus Vincere64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3637754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c14…fa32backed Natus Vincere79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Team Lynx24c99.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed Team Lynx11c95.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.698622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e0b…beb2backed Team Lynx11c93.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7070…bd47backed Team Lynx38c92.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4499…d102backed Natus Vincere62c89$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.182147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc06c…2a86backed Team Lynx23c86.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Lynx18c85.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8979341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7927…34d2backed Team Lynx21c83.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Team Lynx29c81.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.558037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d9f…bcbebacked Natus Vincere67c81.1$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11fa…ebf3backed Team Lynx37c79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.181631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2d4…b96cbacked Natus Vincere69c75.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.37048.6%34 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0887…7864backed Team Lynx45c74.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Team Lynx21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa451…b40dbacked Team Lynx28c71.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53be…8b7fbacked Natus Vincere64c70.78$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere65c69.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2335461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d35…8518backed Natus Vincere66c68$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6589…5e90backed Team Lynx31c63.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b99…eda5backed Natus Vincere68c58.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.471963.2%12 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdfd…2f8ebacked Team Lynx37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf5…5ee8backed Team Lynx20c52.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.