Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf789e9e91e852e2b63bc43a26abeb00d4cf14cb26ca3013e9029916c3fb728a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $357,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x447d…dee1backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 133,417$3,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,355.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 6,795$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.27 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Team Lynx | 33c | 4,892$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,276.9 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Natus Vincere | 2c | 4,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…2927backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 2,986$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.91 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Team Lynx | 69c | 2,302$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.68 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…a8b6backed Team Lynx | 27c | 2,180$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,030$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.71 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Natus Vincere | 4c | 2,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +100%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…49b2backed Team Lynx | 47c | 1,313$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.98 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Lynx | 79c | 1,057$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.87 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Natus Vincere | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Natus Vincere | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Natus Vincere | 9c | 900$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Natus Vincere | 8c | 800$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Lynx | 75c | 671.63$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.71 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Lynx | 38c | 628.5$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.04 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 627.51$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.57 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Natus Vincere | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Natus Vincere | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Lynx | 63c | 399.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.99 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 350.51$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.42 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 312.71$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.3 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…6fcdbacked Natus Vincere | 7c | 308.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…1f99backed Team Lynx | 30c | 233.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Team Lynx | 73c | 159.01$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 126.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 114.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Team Lynx | 22c | 91.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Lynx | 35c | 84.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Team Lynx | 24c | 83.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Team Lynx | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…1e15backed Team Lynx | 71c | 78.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 77.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Team Lynx | 36c | 71.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 47.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Team Lynx | 29c | 38.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d35…8518backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.