Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: strongboys vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fe71e6e8c13cbfaed41776c4f673116b2cec5e841d6fa2e2064cb545b2cdc9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof strongboys, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked strongboys | 62c | 1,854$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.98 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 1,521$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.86 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed strongboys | 38c | 1,312$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.78 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 904.94$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.86 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed strongboys | 60c | 800.68$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.44 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 788.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.81 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f137backed Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 651.07$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…2afbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 601.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…7deebacked Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 423.28$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.37 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 413.4$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7abc…9ff7backed strongboys | 39c | 318.13$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.13 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.5wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 279$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…55babacked Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 248.79$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed strongboys | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked strongboys | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Nemiga Gaming | 29c | 163.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 162.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2312…016fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 152.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked strongboys | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 72c | 139.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 134.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…260abacked strongboys | 63c | 125.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9b…71f8backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 122.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 116.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed strongboys | 63c | 100.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked strongboys | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…6858backed Nemiga Gaming | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed strongboys | 55c | 97.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 97.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed strongboys | 43c | 95.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…6f16backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 90.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 78.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 76.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed strongboys | 74c | 72.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…53acbacked Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 62.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed strongboys | 68c | 62.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed strongboys | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…c63ebacked strongboys | 58c | 51.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked strongboys | 56c | 51.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed strongboys | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked strongboys | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…45a1backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388c…3dffbacked Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 35.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked strongboys | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe139…84b4backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 78c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Dthis page
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winnerstrongboys won
- Game Handicap: strongboys (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)Nemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.