Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: strongboys vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85981c3859b855d46aea52eddf7d856c84e091a9142b01cb1c7dda2372edbb36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof strongboys, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 1,015$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.48 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed strongboys | 60c | 830.05$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed strongboys | 58c | 690.25$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.01 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed strongboys | 62c | 280.71$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked strongboys | 24c | 124.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…7deebacked Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 69.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 68.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 68.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…3365backed strongboys | 63c | 67.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed strongboys | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…45a1backed Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 53.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 51.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed strongboys | 39c | 48.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed strongboys | 59c | 44.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed strongboys | 59c | 42.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 35.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe139…84b4backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…be27backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Dstrongboys won
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winnerstrongboys won
- Game Handicap: strongboys (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)Nemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.