Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70133159351d48aae6b4072aa90cc69180a1251c520779903e8b06ff4c21d861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 78c | 1,889$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 67c | 688.06$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.31 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 3c | 419.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 38c | 370.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 300.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 55c | 298.17$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 266.47$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 11c | 235.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 42c | 208.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 44c | 200.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 66c | 186.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 58c | 186.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 70c | 170.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 158.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 29c | 156.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 155.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 44c | 135.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 134.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 131.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 67c | 110.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 104.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 21c | 102$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 61c | 94.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 29c | 86.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 41c | 76.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 55c | 75.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 52c | 75.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 29c | 70.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 67c | 61.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 54c | 61.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 52c | 60.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 70c | 59.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 74c | 59.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 57.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 21c | 55.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 42c | 52.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 41c | 51.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…5485backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 49.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…5290backed No | 53c | 49.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 45.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…6ffcbacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 41c | 42.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 38c | 39.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…82cbbacked No | 71c | 38.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 32c | 37.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 37.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 37.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…4317backed Yes | 48c | 34.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 64c | 32.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 76c | 32.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 30.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 29.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9125…9383backed Yes | 48c | 27.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 26.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 25.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 47c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 21.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…9651backed No | 54c | 21.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…7520backed Yes | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6266…623abacked Yes | 79c | 18.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 61c | 16.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 13.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.